I had the misfortune of being at Lenox Square - a major regional mall in Atlanta - yesterday. While the Apple store seemed pretty happening, the rest of the mall was deader than a freshly grilled Bubba Burger (i.e. about the same size crowd as usual). In contrast, the mainstream media (MSM) keeps ejaculating about an alleged strong start to the holiday shopping season.

As usual, the MSM is full of shit. However, as Lenox Square is anecdotal at best, my experience does not prove a damn thing. What does call bullshit on the MSM, however, are the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach statistics. Calculated Risk has some interesting historical charts regarding port volumes buried in Roubini on Recoupling. Note the year over year decline at both ports in October, traditionally when volumes increase prior to the holiday shopping season. Somebody (i.e. retail buyers) does not seem to be expecting a cheery Christmas.

Trucking companies have been reporting crap results for a while now, so the easy money to be made shorting is gone. My guess is Union Pacific (UNP) and CSX Transportation (CSX) are going to be reporting some fucked fourth quarter numbers. During good times, both railroads are less profitable than their competitors based on operating ratio and return on assets - making them less likely to do well when volumes are down since fixed costs remain the same. My money is where my mouth is - I have puts on UNP and CSX.